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ছোটখাট তাৎক্ষণিক কড়চা : রাজনীতি অর্থনীতি, বিপদ ও সুযোগের মূল্যায়ন

মাসুদ করিম

স্থবিরতায় সামনে পা ফেলতে [...]

বাংলাদেশের বর্তমান অর্থনীতি কর্মচঞ্চল কিন্তু স্থবির। অর্থনীতির এই স্থবিরতা ২০০৭ থেকেই শুরু হয়েছে এবং এখনো বিশেষত ২০১১তে আরো গভীর হয়েছে। এরকম স্থবিরতায় সামনে পা ফেলতে অর্থনীতি তার বিপদগুলোকে অবমূল্যায়ন করতে পারে এবং সুযোগগুলোকে করতে পারে অতিমূল্যায়ন। বিপদের অবমূল্যায়ন হয় কারণ অর্থনীতি ভাবতে থাকে আর কী এমন বিপদে পড়ব এবং সুযোগের অতিমূল্যায়ন হয় কারণ অর্থনীতি ভাবতে থাকে এই সুযোগটাকে গ্রাস করতে পারলে পুরোপুরি উতরে যাব। ঠিক এখানেই দেশের সর্বোচ্চ নির্বাহী পদে যিনি আছেন, তার ভাবনার পরিসর বাড়াতে হবে। এবং তার সার্বক্ষণিক খেয়াল রাখতে হবে অর্থনীতির বিপদগুলোর ঠিক মূল্যায়ন না হলেও মারাত্মক অবমূল্যায়ন যেন না হয়। আর অর্থনীতির সুযোগগুলোর ঠিক মূল্যায়ন না হলেও মারাত্মক অতিমূল্যায়ন যেন না হয়।

বাংলাদশের বর্তমান রাজনীতি মুখর কিন্তু স্থবির। এই স্থবিরতাও শুরু হয়েছে ২০০৭এ এবং ২০০৯ সাল থেকে এটি ক্রমশ আরো স্থবিরতার দিকে যেতে যেতে ২০১১ও পার করেছে। এরকম স্থবিরতায় সামনে পা ফেলতে রাজনীতি তার বিপদগুলোকে অতিমূল্যায়ন করতে থাকে এবং সুযোগগুলোকে করতে থাকে অবমূল্যায়ন। বিপদের অতিমূল্যায়ন হয় কারণ রাজনীতির পারদ চড়ে তার না ভরাডুবি হয় এই আশঙ্কায় তার ক্ষমতা ভয় পেতে থাকে এবং সুযোগের অবমূল্যায়ন হয় কারণ রাজনীতির গভীর ক্ষমতাবলয় সুযোগগুলোকে কাজে লাগানোর প্রতিজ্ঞা ও মানসিক শক্তির অভাব বোধ করতে থাকে। ঠিক এখানেই বিদ্যমান রাজনীতির সর্বোচ্চ ক্ষমতাধর ব্যক্তিটিকে নিরন্তর খেয়াল রাখতে হয় রাজনীতির বিপদগুলোর ঠিক মূল্যায়ন না হলেও মারাত্মক অতিমূল্যায়ন যেন না হয়। আর রাজনীতির সুযোগগুলোর ঠিক মূল্যায়ন না হলেও মারাত্মক অবমূল্যায়ন যেন না হয়।

প্রধানমন্ত্রীর কার্যালয় (প্রমকা) যদি অর্থনীতির বিপদ ও সুযোগ নিয়ে এবং প্রধানমন্ত্রীর বাসভবন (প্রমবা) যদি রাজনীতির বিপদ ও সুযোগ নিয়ে ২০১২ সাল জুড়ে এই মূল্যায়নের সূত্রের দিকে নজর দেন তাহলে ২০১৩ সাল বাংলাদেশের জন্য স্থবিরতা থেকে গতিশীলতার দিকে যাত্রার এক অনন্য বছর হয়ে উঠবে আশা করছি। প্রমকা ও প্রমবা-র সেই সাহস আছে শক্তিও আছে এখন শুধু বছর জুড়ে যত্নের সাথে পরিচর্যাটা প্রয়োজন।

মাসুদ করিম

লেখক। যদিও তার মৃত্যু হয়েছে। পাঠক। যেহেতু সে পুনর্জন্ম ঘটাতে পারে। সমালোচক। কারণ জীবন ধারন তাই করে তোলে আমাদের। আমার টুইট অনুসরণ করুন, আমার টুইট আমাকে বুঝতে অবদান রাখে। নিচের আইকনগুলো দিতে পারে আমার সাথে যোগাযোগের, আমাকে পাঠের ও আমাকে অনুসরণের একগুচ্ছ মাধ্যম।

৭ comments

  1. মাসুদ করিম - ২৯ জানুয়ারি ২০১২ (১১:৩৩ অপরাহ্ণ)

    অর্থ মন্ত্রণালয় নিয়ে আগেও বহুবার এই উক্তি করেছি, আবারও করছি, এবং জোরের সাথেই বলছি, অর্থ মন্ত্রণালয়ের জন্য ‘অর্থনৈতিক উপদেষ্টা পরিষদ’ খুবই প্রয়োজনীয় হয়ে পড়েছে। অন্তত তিন জন বিশেষজ্ঞ অর্থনীতিবিদ বা চার জন হলে আরো ভাল, নিয়ে একটা উপদেষ্টা পরিষদ অর্থমন্ত্রীর উপদেষ্টা হিসাবে থাকুক — তিন জন হলে একজন ম্যাক্রো ফিন্যান্স বিশেষজ্ঞ, একজন মাইক্রো ফিন্যান্স বিশেষজ্ঞ, একজন শেয়ার বাজার বিশেষজ্ঞ; আর চার জন হলে সাথে একজন আন্তর্জাতিক ব্যবসা বিশেষজ্ঞ।

  2. মাসুদ করিম - ২৫ এপ্রিল ২০১২ (২:৩০ অপরাহ্ণ)

    বাংলাদেশ নিয়ে নিউইয়র্ক টাইমসের বাণিজ্যপাতায় হালকা চালের সংবাদগল্প। কিন্তু খুবই গুরুত্বপূর্ণ, ‘সাব-সেভেন’ থেকে ‘সেভেন ক্লাবে’ বাংলাদেশের যাওয়াটা পরিশ্রমসাধ্য এবং খুবসম্ভবত যাচ্ছেই। প্রধান তিনটি চালিকাশক্তি : বিদেশ থেকে আসা রেমিটেন্স, শক্তিশালী আভ্যন্তরীন চাহিদা এবং দ্বিতীয় বৃহত্তম গার্মেন্টস রপ্তানিকারক দেশ।

    Economists at Standard Chartered Bank believe that Bangladesh could join what have been called the “7 percent club” of economies that expand at least 7 percent annually for an extended period — allowing their economies to double every decade. Current members of the “club” include China, Cambodia, India, Mozambique and Uganda.

    HSBC included Bangladesh in a group of 26 economies — along with China, India and several Latin American and African countries — where it expects particularly strong growth. The United States and much of Europe, by contrast, are likely to remain merely stable, according to HSBC’s projections.

    The gradual shift in global production to low-cost countries, from developed economies in Europe and North America, is driving much of that growth. The trend, which began turning parts of Asia — notably China — into manufacturing hubs in the 1980s and 1990s, has started to take root in Bangladesh.

    For now, Bangladesh’s manufacturing prowess is primarily focused on the garment sector, which has grown into a multibillion-dollar industry that employs 3.6 million people and accounts for 78 percent of the country’s exports.

    Bangladesh has seen particularly strong growth in the last few years, partly because of rising labor costs in China, where manufacturing is moving into higher-margin activities like product design.

    “For many years, China was almost always the hands-down answer to all buyers’ needs,” the consulting firm McKinsey noted in a recent report. Now, Western wholesale buyers of garments are looking for the “next China,” and Bangladesh “is clearly the preferred next stop for the sourcing caravan.”

    Bangladesh exported nearly $18 billion worth of garments in the 12 months through June 2011, $10.5 billion of that to the European Union and $4.6 billion to the United States, according to the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association. The total nearly doubled from four years earlier, and McKinsey forecast that the garment industry would grow by as much as 9 percent a year over the next decade.

    Li & Fung, a giant Hong Kong trading company that supplies retailers including Walmart with clothing mostly purchased from Asia, is a case in point. Last year, the company bought $1 billion worth of apparel from manufacturers in Bangladesh, 41 percent more than in 2010. Bangladesh overtook Vietnam and Indonesia in 2011 to become the second-largest source of such products for Li & Fung, after China.

    But infrastructure bottlenecks and power cuts are substantial “negatives,” Bruce Rockowitz, chief executive of Li & Fung, said at a recent news conference in Hong Kong. Still, the company intends to increase the business it does in Bangladesh. “The prognosis,” Mr. Rockowitz said, “is good.”

    Another driver of economic growth has been the inflow of remittances — money sent home by Bangladeshis who have sought employment abroad. More than $11 billion worth of remittances flowed into Bangladesh last year, more than 10 times the amount from foreign investment, and the annual inflow is expected to rise to $20 billion in five years’ time, the government estimates.

    বিস্তারিত পড়ুন : In an Unlikely Corner of Asia, Strong Promise of Growth।

  3. মাসুদ করিম - ১৩ নভেম্বর ২০১২ (২:৫৮ অপরাহ্ণ)

    সাভ-সেভেন থেকে সেভেনে গেলেই হবে না। ২০২১এ মধ্যআয়ের দেশ হতে হলে জিডিপি যেতে হবে আটে, বলছে বিশ্বব্যাংক।

    মধ্যম আয়ের দেশ হতে ৮% প্রবৃদ্ধি চাই

    সরকার ২০২১ সালের মধ্যে বাংলাদেশকে মধ্যম আয়ের দেশে পরিণত করার আশার কথা বললেও ওই লক্ষ্যে পৌঁছাতে হলে প্রতি বছর সাড়ে ৭ থেকে ৮ শতাংশ হারে অর্থনৈতিক প্রবৃদ্ধি অর্জন করতে হবে বলে মনে করে বিশ্ব ব্যাংক।

    ওয়াশিংটনভিত্তিক এ ঋণদাতা সংস্থার এক প্রতিবেদনে বলা হয়েছে, মধ্যম আয়ের দেশ হতে হলে বাংলাদেশকে প্রবাসী আয়েও অন্তত ৮ শতাংশ প্রবৃদ্ধি ধরে রাখতে হবে।

    মঙ্গলবার রাজধানীর একটি হোটেল ‘বাংলাদেশ: আরো গতিশীল, সমন্বিত ও টেকসই প্রবৃদ্ধির সুযোগ ও চ্যালেঞ্জগুলো’ শীর্ষক এই প্রতিবেদন প্রকাশ করা হয়। অর্থমন্ত্রী আবুল মাল আবদুল মুহিতও উপস্থিত ছিলেন ওই অনুষ্ঠানে।

    অনুষ্ঠানে জানানো হয়, গত এক দশকে বাংলাদেশ গড়ে ৬ শতাংশ হারে জিডিপি প্রবৃদ্ধি অর্জন করেছে। আর গত অর্থবছরে প্রবাসী আয় বা রেমিটেন্সে প্রবৃদ্ধি হয়েছে গড়ে ১০ দশমিক ৫ শতাংশ।

    বিশ্ব ব্যাংকের জ্যেষ্ঠ অর্থনীতিবিদ জাহিদ হোসেন অনুষ্ঠানে বলেন, “প্রবৃদ্ধির চাকা সচল রেখে দারিদ্র্য কমিয়ে আনতে হলে বাংলাদেশকে রেমিটেন্স প্রবৃদ্ধির এই ধারা ধরে রাখার পাশাপাশি জনশক্তি রপ্তানিকে উৎসাহিত করতে হবে।”

    আওয়ামী লীগ নেতৃত্বাধীন বর্তমান সরকার যে ‘রূপকল্প’ নিয়ে অর্থনৈতিক পরিকল্পনা সাজিয়েছে, তাতে স্বাধীনতার ৫০ বছর পূর্তিতে, অর্থাৎ ২০২১ সালের মধ্যে বাংলাদেশকে মধ্যম আয়ের দেশে পরিণত করার আশার কথা বলা হয়েছে।

  4. মাসুদ করিম - ১৮ আগস্ট ২০১৩ (৬:৪৫ অপরাহ্ণ)

    প্রধানমন্ত্রীর কার্যালয় (প্রমকা)র সাফল্যের প্রচার এভাবে আজকের মতো প্রধানমন্ত্রীর বাসভবন (প্রমবা) করতে পারে।

    ‘দেশি পাটের জিনগঠনও উন্মোচিত’

    রোববার গণভবনে এক সংবাদ সম্মেলনে প্রধানমন্ত্রী শেখ হাসিনা এই সাফল্যের কথা ঘোষণা করেন।

    পাট নিয়ে এই গবেষণায় নেতৃত্ব দেয়া বাংলাদেশি বিজ্ঞানী মাকসুদুল আলমও গণভবনে এই সংবাদ সম্মেলনে উপস্থিত ছিলেন।

    প্রধানমন্ত্রী বলেন, “তোষা পাটের সঙ্গে দেশি পাটের জীবনরহস্য উন্মোচনের কাজও আমাদের বিজ্ঞানীরা শেষ করেছেন। পাটের জিনোমের পূর্ণাঙ্গ তথ্য এখন আমাদেরই হাতে।

    “এটা বাংলাদেশের সম্পদ। বাংলাদেশের বিজ্ঞানীরাই এটা আবিস্কার করেছেন।”

    বাংলাদেশ পাট গবেষণা ইনস্টিটিউটের গবেষক মাকসুদুল আলম বলেন, “এখন বিশ্বে যেখানে পাট নিয়ে যে গবেষণাই হোক, কেউ আর আমাদের ইগনোর করতে পারবে না। পাটের সমস্ত রহস্য এখন আমাদের হাতে।”
    গবেষণার সার্বিক অগ্রগতি জানতে সোমবার সকাল ১০টায় তার গবেষণা কেন্দ্রে সাংবাদিকদের যাওয়অর আমন্ত্রণ জানান মাকসুদুল আলম।

    এর আগে প্রথমবারের মতো তোষা পাটের জিনোম সিকোয়েন্স উন্মোচন করে বিশ্বে সাড়া ফেলে দেন এই বাংলাদেশি বিজ্ঞানী ও তার সহকর্মীরা।

    এরপর তারা উন্মোচন করেন ম্যাক্রোফমিনা ফাসিওলিনা নামের এক ছত্রাকের জিন-নকশা, যা পাটসহ প্রায় ৫০০টি উদ্ভিদের স্বাভাবিক বিকাশে বাধা দেয়।

    তাদের ওই দুটি সাফল্যের খবর প্রধানমন্ত্রী শেথ হাসিনাই প্রথম দেশবাসীকে জানান।

    স্থানীয় সরকারমন্ত্রী সৈয়দ আশরাফুল ইসলাম, কৃষিমন্ত্রী মতিয়া চৌধুরী, পররাষ্ট্র মন্ত্রী দীপু মনি, বিমান মন্ত্রী ফারুক খান, পরিবেশমন্ত্রী হাছান মাহমুদ ও স্থানীয় সরকার প্রতিমন্ত্রী জাহাঙ্গীর কবির নানক এ সংবাদ সম্মেলনে উপস্থিত ছিলেন।

    এই গবেষণায় সংশ্লিষ্ট সবাইকে অভিনন্দন জানান প্রধানমন্ত্রী।

  5. মাসুদ করিম - ৪ জানুয়ারি ২০১৬ (১১:৪৭ অপরাহ্ণ)

    সংবাদ সম্মেলনে সিপিডির সম্মানীয় ফেলো দেবপ্রিয় ভট্টাচার্য্য বলেন, গত পাঁচ মাসে দেশে শান্তি-শৃঙ্খলা বজায় ছিল। এর পাশাপাশি বিশ্ববাজারে পণ্যমূল্য কমেছে, সুদ হার কমেছে, টাকার বিনিময় হার স্থিতিশীল ছিল, মূল্যস্ফীতিও কম ছিল।

    “এরকম ইতিবাচক পরিবেশের মধ্যেও বেসরকারি বিনিয়োগে ধীরগতি দেখা যাচ্ছে। এটা চিন্তার বিষয়। ….অর্থনীতিতে স্থিতি আছে, কিন্তু চাঞ্চল্য নেই।”

    বেসরকারি খাতের বিনিয়োগ না বাড়ার কারণ হিসেবে দেবপ্রিয় বলেন, “সরকারি প্রাতিষ্ঠানিক ও নীতি সংস্কারের উদ্যোগে ঘাটতি থাকায় ব্যক্তি বিনিয়োগে এই ধীরগতি।”

    কিন্তু ৪ বছর আগে আমি যা বলেছিলাম, তা অনেক বেশি ইন্টারেস্টিং – বাংলাদেশের বর্তমান অর্থনীতি কর্মচঞ্চল কিন্তু স্থবির।

  6. মাসুদ করিম - ১৮ আগস্ট ২০১৬ (৯:৩৬ পূর্বাহ্ণ)

    Financial sector problems worrying: Dr Murshid

    Investment suffers mainly due to low business confidence
    Dr KAS Murshid, DG of BIDS, tells FE

    Low inflation, declining lending rates at home, falling prices in industrial raw materials and capital goods in the international market do offer an excellent opportunity to invest more in Bangladesh. To tap the opportunity, the government, however, needs to work harder for restoring business confidence, removing red tape, and combating systemic corruption.

    Dr KAS Murshid, Director General of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), said while talking with the Financial Express on the country’s economy and development recently.

    He had served the BIDS for many years and took early retirement in 2012 to join an assignment with UNDP in Yangon, Myanmar. DR. Murshid, later, worked in the Finance Ministry in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. He was appointed Director General of BIDS in April, 2015.

    The economist identified domestic resource mobilisation and stimulation of private investment as two major challenges in the current fiscal year.

    Dr Murshid also pointed out that the impact of the Gulshan cafe carnage on the economy would largely depend on the government’s response to situation following the incident.

    Dr Murshid, whose academic and research works cover food policy, agricultural markets and value chain finance, rural institutions and human development, said since the resource-base essential for ensuring economic growth in Bangladesh remains narrow greater attention is needed to be given to agriculture and rural development.

    Following are the excerpts of the interview:

    The Financial Express (FE): How do you evaluate the performance of the economy in fiscal year 2015-16? What were the major achievements and failures in terms of economic management?

    Dr KAS Murshid: Everyone has spoken very favourably about Bangladesh’s mature handling of its macroeconomic environment which has given us the necessary space to vigorously carry out our economic activities. Our growth rate moved past the psychological 7.0 per cent barrier with inflation and interest rates remaining low. Despite recessionary tendencies in the global economy, export earnings registered near double digit growth and inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reached $2 billion. But remittance has been already affected due to low oil prices and a slowdown of the Gulf economies. On top of this, the sluggish trend in investment continues to haunt us.

    FE: Why do you think investment is sluggish?

    Murshid: Investment trend is sluggish mainly due to uncertainty and lack of confidence among businessmen and entrepreneurs despite an improved political climate and greater stability. If stability is sustained, investment will respond and this will take 6-12 months to be reflected in the data. We have a number of positives on our side: low bank interest rates, low prices of industrial raw materials, intermediate and capital goods and low inflation. This is a great opportunity to undertake technology up-gradation and balancing and modernisation of industrial units. This is an excellent opportunity for investors. However, it is important for the government to do much more to restore confidence and remove red tape and the culture of corruption that is setting us back. We cannot afford this anymore.

    FE: You mentioned about higher growth, low inflation and macroeconomic stability. How sustainable are these achievements? Is the distribution of growth balanced?

    Murshid: We have managed to grow at a modest pace for over a decade and so sustainability is not the problem. The problem is how to push our growth rates up by a notch or two while at the same time reduce poverty and inequality, and promote human development.

    Our sources of growth remain narrow so that is indeed a threat – it is time that we find a way to rapidly diversify both industry and agriculture, and promote a more formal services sector. For example, we need to figure out ways of regenerating agriculture in a situation of stagnant, even declining prices of farm produce. Our equity objectives require increased attention to agriculture and rural development.

    FE: What are the main challenges for the current fiscal year? What are the areas that need greater attention?

    Murshid: Domestic resource mobilisation is the most difficult economic challenge in the context of ambitious plan targets.

    The second challenge is to stimulate private investment. Public investment would also appear to need overhauling – are we using our public resources in the best way possible? There are serious concerns about the quality, cost and rationale of public expenditures. There is a belief that frequently, these are of low value, low quality and mired in inefficiency and corruption. Some high profile projects have become hugely controversial. It is the duty of the government to take notice of such criticisms and offer adequate justifications in a cool, professional manner. The dream of a new Bangladesh requires that we bring discipline to public institutions and public expenditures. We cannot afford a business as usual situation any longer. We need to remember that our people are now better educated and are able to read newspapers and have access to electronic and social media in unprecedented numbers. They have learnt to ask questions. It would be irresponsible on our part to ignore them.

    FE: Do you think the latest terrorist incident in Gulshan will cast a shadow on the economy?

    Murshid: Much depends on how we manage our response. While the police response so far has been exemplary, the same cannot be said of the accompanying eviction drive carried out by other agencies in prime areas. Legality is always an issue in a country like ours – and it is not merely a question of permissions, licenses and so on. If you want the rule of law to be enforced, let it be done uniformly without fear or favour and across all sectors. What was the rationale for picking this particular sector? And why was the timing considered appropriate. I am afraid I cannot sympathise with acts that appear to be knee-jerk reactions carried out whimsically and with total disregard for basic rights. Now it is perfectly possible that these actions were in fact very carefully thought out and every action was taken keeping in mind the need to be least disruptive. Perhaps – but this was certainly not self-evident. We need to have a better sense of what is right and not. I would like to ask how many government officials whose job it was to ensure that residential areas are not encroached and that illegal businesses are not set up haphazardly everywhere, have lost their jobs or even been reprimanded? Possibly none. Someone should explain why not, if that indeed is the case.

    Our response to the crisis should be strong but calm and measured. It should be well thought out and least disruptive. We must not under any circumstances, end up making the common man angry and upset because we need their support. If we are successful in this we will have learnt to carry on our businesses as usual, perhaps around a new normal, fully taking into account and being prepared for any temporary shocks that we may face. Otherwise, we allow ourselves to be routed and we become the victim of our own folly.

    FE: On external front, will there be any big blow from Brexit? What are the other external factors or global developments that may affect the economy of Bangladesh?

    Murshid: The impact of Brexit will be mostly indirect. We already see that the British economy is reeling in shock. It is likely to affect the EU and especially our main trading partners there, namely Germany and Italy. It is therefore quite likely that there will be some impact on Bangladesh. However, the external situation is always changing and it is difficult to project outcomes. For example, we have just heard the Saudi Arabia has opened up its labour market once again for Bangladeshis. This is a very positive development especially coming in the face of declining remittances reported in recent weeks. However, our dependence on the Middle Eastern markets has left our folks there open to the chaos and turmoil along with all kinds of confusing and conflicting religious interpretations. This could threaten our Bangladeshi values and culture, and if unattended can spell immense danger. We need to assess the real cost of such migration to our country.

    FE: We are now trying to actively engage in various regional integration processes, e.g. by allowing transit-transhipment to India and singing of BBIN motor vehicle agreement. Will there be win-win outcomes both for India and Bangladesh?

    Murshid: The transit issue is not a very big issue for Bangladesh in the sense that potential benefits from transit is not huge. However, it does signal a change in attitudes and sends a positive signal that we favour closer economic integration, for what it’s worth.

    We do have duty-free access to the Indian market. But due to several non-tariff barriers, especially on quality control and certification, export of Bangladeshi products has remained insignificant. India has, however, passed a new GST (Goods and Services Tax) law which bars individual states from imposing any additional taxes or duties on any product entering or leaving the state. Hopefully, the provision will be applicable on Bangladeshi exports.

    Regarding regional integration in general, I would say that there have been too much talk and little progress. Bangladesh is comparatively well prepared for integration compared to some other countries. I consider Myanmar to be a major stumbling block for us especially in the context of our Look East policy. It is very unlikely that the country will provide Bangladesh road or rail access to Kunming of China. We need to think of alternatives – perhaps establishing coastal shipping/trading links with Thailand and obtaining access to China via the GMS (Greater Mekong Sub-region) roads. In the meantime, let us hope Myanmar will grow up.

    FE: You are heading an institution that is engaged in research activities. The use of data is one of the most important parts of research. How credible are the data dished out by the BBS?

    Murshid: I think BBS data compared to that of many other countries is good. There may still be problems and it is important for BBS to constantly improve quality. I recognise that there is a lot of loose talk and innuendo about BBS data although no evidence has been provided to support allegations. Researchers must always use data carefully and critically and provide solid feedback to BBS so that they can improve data quality. We must always remember that good policies require good data, and this is work in progress.

    FE: Is our economy headed in the right direction?

    Murshid: We have done well but we must do better. There are huge opportunities before us but in order to gain from these we need far better institutions than we currently have. The other area where we must focus with much greater energy and dedication is human development. Let me give a small example here: Vietnam has made enormous progress. It has established high quality schools that are able to compete with the best in the world. The average Vietnamese high school student is better in Maths and Science than his counterpart in the UK and Germany. If we want to look up to ‘models’ then here is an excellent model that we can aspire to.

    FE: Finally, can you tell us a little about your plans for BIDS?

    Murshid: We are an independent, public sector research institute that is more than 50 years old. We have a glorious record so that we are constantly under pressure to compete with our own past record. Currently BIDS has a shortage of researchers but we hope this situation will not persist for long. We are trying hard to recruit both young and senior researchers and encouraging Bangladeshi scholars and researchers abroad to come back and work in BIDS for a few years.

    I am also keenly conscious of the fact that researchers should contribute more directly to policy formulation. We are increasingly trying to address concrete policy issues along with the more academic research that we are mandated to carry out. Strategic dissemination is extremely important and this is also something that we are looking at closely. In particular we want to make full use of advanced technological options including the use of social media and e-platforms. We have chalked out detailed plans for research and dissemination, including setting up a three-year research agenda and launching of two annual events, which we are calling BIDS Critical Conversations and the BIDS Research Almanac. While the latter is a platform to disseminate BIDS’ in-house research the former is a platform of ‘free, frank, open discussion’ for the whole development community to thrash out ideas, views and approaches to development policy and practice.

  7. মাসুদ করিম - ৩ জুন ২০১৭ (১০:২৩ পূর্বাহ্ণ)

    Proposed National Budget for FY ’18: ‘Unsurprising’ & ‘uninspiring’

    The proposed Taka 4.0 trillion-plus national budget for the incoming fiscal year (FY), 2017-18, can, perhaps be, tagged, somewhat befittingly, as ‘unsurprising’ and ‘uninspiring’. It is ‘unsurprising’ as it treads the same, familiar path of yester years — projecting high, performing low and leaving gaps between promises and outcomes. And furthermore, it is ‘unsurprising’, because most of its key features — size, targets resource mobilisation and allocation patterns etc., were largely made public before its formal announcement Thursday last. Why is the proposed budget ‘uninspiring’? It, as this paper considers, is so, because it broadly admits implementation capacity-related problems that constrain efforts for optimal budgetary outcomes but it provides no practical operational guide, beyond mere scratching of the surface, to help overcome such constraints. It does not thus move beyond a status quo stance on the same. This is a hard truth, however unsavoury it may be to the authorities concerned.

    This is the eleventh national budget that has now been announced by Finance Minister Mr. AMA Muhith, a very experienced and seasoned guard at one of the most vital ministries of the government. Very few finance ministers elsewhere get such a distinctive opportunity. Mr. Muhith deserves ‘kudos’ for performing the task — an arduous one, no doubt — of formulating the national budget for so many years. He would have certainly been credited more, if the action course for improving the delivery capacity of the government, in the light of his vast experiences in this field, would have been spelt out, more clearly and not in business-as-usual ways. He has proposed the new national budget for FY 2017-18, setting its overall expenditure target at a new record level, with four notable targets — achieving gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 7.4%, boosting aggregate investment to 31.9% (8.6% in public sector plus that of private investment at 23.3%), containing budget deficit within the limit of 5.0% and keeping the inflation rate down to 5.5%. All other goals and objectives of the proposed budget are, by and large, in line with those of the Seventh Five Year Plan, the Perspective Plan and the UN-adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) — and those too, in the context of the Medium Term Macroeconomic Framework. As the taste of the pudding lies in its eating, the implementation part of the proposed budget will have the most critical bearing on efforts to fulfil its stated goals, objectives and targets.

    The accounting frame of the proposed budget, like its previous ones, has been drawn along the routine lines, delineating the sources from where resources or funds would be coming and to where the same would be going. Details of every head of account on both receipts and expenditure sides are provided therein. This is the budgetary ‘number game’ and here the attention has unfailingly been given to keeping budget deficit — the gap between the projected overall expenditure and the estimated aggregate revenue and other receipts — within the limit of 5.0 per cent. That ‘arithmetical’ exercise has, quite expectedly, been carried out meticulously in the proposed budget on an incremental basis, from both sides — receipts and expenditures.

    On the revenue receipts’ side, the major thrust for resource mobilisation has been proposed to be placed on value added tax (VAT) and supplementary duty (SD), by putting the VAT Act of 2012, after some amendments, into effect from July 01, 2017. The Finance Minister has kept up to his earlier words — maintaining VAT at a uniform rate of 15 per cent at the retail level, notwithstanding the pulls and pressures from all concerned quarters for lowering it. However, he has sought to ‘pacify the resentment’ of the businesses by extending the list of exemptions under VAT and expanding the limit for turnover tax, in its place, in order to keep the small businesses and retailers out of the VAT network at this stage. Yet then, the collection of VAT under the proposed budget for FY 2017-18 has been estimated at a level that is 33% higher than the revised estimates about tax revenue earnings, in the form of VAT, for the outgoing fiscal. On the whole, the Finance Minister has pinned much hope — and hopes, it is worthy to note here, build sooner than knowledge destroys — on incremental tax revenue earnings from income and corporate tax, import and export duty, VAT and SD to the extent of about Taka 640 billion, representing an increase by about 34.5 per cent over such earnings in the outgoing fiscal.

    Mr. Muhith has himself noted that he is deliberately opting for an ‘ambitious’ target for revenue mobilisation for the forthcoming fiscal. He is doing this, in order to implement the government’s specific and integrated programmes “to accomplish its goals of transforming the country into a ‘Middle income’ one by 2021 and a ‘Developed’ one by 2041.” But the fact that the overall revenue collection in the outgoing fiscal would witness a shortfall to the tune of Taka 240 billion in the revised budget compared to the estimated one in the original budget, does not provide much realistic grounds to agree with the rationale for setting the revenue collection target at such a higher level under the proposed budget. One has to be overtly over-optimistic about a quantum leap in efficiency of the National Board of Revenue (NBR) that collects the most part of the tax receipts to realise this target. On this count, the Finance Minister, if one goes by his narrative, is himself highly confident of the NBR’s competence and efficiency, that is stated to have been bolstered by what the government has so far been done to expand its human resource base and outreach and to upgrade skill and capacity of its manpower.

    All concerned would rightly expect the NBR to do all the needful to widen the country’s tax base and to help earn more tax revenues, in an environment where tax compliance is promoted and encouraged by a tax-payers’ friendly revenue regime. Here discretion will certainly be considered no part of valour that leads to non-transparency and lack of accountability. On the revenue mobilisation side, the government has also to be more up and doing about raising non-NBR tax and non-tax receipts. At this stage, it will be relevant to underline the imperatives for exercising utmost caution so that the new VAT and SD regime does not trigger inflationary pressures beyond what has been targeted in the proposed budget. Any such emerging pressure, to any disproportionate extent, will certainly pose an additional macro-economic risk. Such a risk will discourage investment, particularly in the private sector.

    In his FY 2017-18 budget speech, the Finance Minister has elaborated much on the positives about the socio-economic situation, now obtaining in the country. He has listed many successes to this effect, while narrating the implementation status of his earlier budget commitments. Such successes do certainly need to be acknowledged with an open mind by all concerned. But the weaknesses that still persist in the economy do also equally need to be taken note of. The danger of growing non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking sector, the ailing state of affairs in the public sector banks that require heavy doses of transfusion of public funds to keep them afloat through recapitalisation, the perennial loss-making state-owned enterprises, the cost over-run factors concerning particularly large or mega public sector development projects that are largely associated with oft-repeated time extensions for their completion, low or poor quality of public expenditures in a wide array of areas etc., constitute some of such major weaknesses. The Finance Minister has indirectly mentioned some of those but has not provided any specific and credible guideline about fixing them. There are of course no quick fixes to all those long-persisting weaknesses but there must be a credible time-bound plan of action for overcoming them.

    The budget with its annual time-frame is, of course, not expected to provide the answers to all the problems — the weaknesses and the threats. But when the Finance Minister prefers to go too long on the narrative about the positives — the strengths and opportunities, while being too short on the weaknesses or flaws or risks (including those looming ones), then one might find it difficult to see the wood for the trees. Acceleration of investment, in both public and private sector — a prime need for Bangladesh to step up the pace of its inclusive growth process for reaching the goal of middle-income status by 2021 — will greatly depend on undertaking deep structural reforms to address the existing weaknesses.

    Clearly, the country’s economy has done otherwise commendably well in past several years, notwithstanding some unfavourable exogenous and endogenous circumstances. But there is yet no reason for over-confidence. Strengthened institutions and capacity development are priorities for Bangladesh if its full economic potential is to be harnessed. In this context, the FY 2017-18 budget speech raises expectations but does not provide strong grounds for generating hope on plausible grounds. Actions can only make the difference. At this stage, all concerned would look forward to supportive actions coming in the forthcoming fiscal, in an undistracted way, to take the economy forward on a steadily sustained, sustainable and inclusive growth path.

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